Think back. That laptop, that TV, or those sneakers you bought last Black Friday. When did you start looking for them? Probably not that last Friday in November. There were weeks of comparing models, reading reviews, adding items to your cart, and waiting for the price to drop. And it's quite likely that, at some point, you asked ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, or Copilot which one was best for you.

What we do as consumers is exactly what your customers are already doing. And it has direct consequences for how a brand should prepare its campaign to generate the greatest impact. 

To measure this, at RocaSalvatella we have analyzed the evolution of searches about Black Friday in Spain over the last five years, the digital conversation in the weeks leading up to the campaign, and what the main AI assistants say when a consumer seeks information.

The purchase decision is made weeks in advance

We're now at the starting point of the curve. Act now or disappear.

Black Friday remains a key date on the retail calendar. What has changed is everything that happens beforehand.

In 2025, 57% of search interest related to Black Friday was concentrated before the campaign week. Between mid-October and Black Friday week, that interest increased 14-fold, nearly doubling week by week during November.

The date is also gaining momentum. November 2025 saw the highest interest in the last five years, and 2026 is progressing at exactly the same pace: by mid-October, search volume was identical to that of the same week last year. We are now at the starting point of the curve. A few weeks before Black Friday, interest is still around 7% of its peak, but it has already increased twelvefold since the end of July and almost quadrupled in the last month.

What does this mean for a brand? That the opportunity to influence the purchase doesn't begin when the discount is activated, but when the consumer seeks information and decides which alternatives are worth considering.

Consumer research has already begun. If your brand isn't present at this stage, it might not even be competitive when the customer is ready to buy.

AI is involved in the decision, but not in the conversation

And here's the most revealing finding. If AI is becoming an increasingly important part of the purchasing process, one would expect to see it reflected in what consumers say. But that's not the case.

In the conversations surrounding Black Friday in recent weeks, only 3% of mentions refer to artificial intelligence, and more than half of those come from the supply side: marketing, e-commerce, and tools for sellers. Consumers who report using AI to make purchasing decisions are isolated cases.

This doesn't mean consumers aren't using AI. It means they aren't talking about it. They ask questions, compare options, and filter them in private conversations that leave no trace on social media. For the first time, a crucial part of the buying process is happening outside the reach of social listening: simply listening to the conversation is no longer enough to see where the decision is formed; it's also necessary to look at the AI's responses.

Against AI: The outcome doesn't depend on your consistency or your campaign. And your narrative is constructed by others.

To see what the conversation doesn't reveal, we ran a test. We sent 15 queries, worded as a consumer preparing for Black Friday shopping would, to four AI assistants: ChatGPT, Perplexity, Copilot, and Google AI Overviews.

The first result is surprising because of how little the brand's own narrative plays. Of the 473 sources cited by attendees, only 8% were brand websites. The rest came from third parties: media outlets, review and buying guide websites, marketplaces, and price comparison sites. What AI says about a brand is, above all, constructed by others.

The second reason is the lack of overlap. In only one of the 15 surveys did all participants recommend the same brand first. In a third of them, not a single brand appeared in every response. Each participant draws from different sources: some rely primarily on media, others on online stores and comparison sites. And collectively, they cited nearly 300 different websites. A high ranking in one survey does not guarantee a place in another. 

The third factor relates to trust. When the query mentions Black Friday, the AI warns consumers in 79% of responses to check price history, be wary of inflated discounts, and verify the seller's reliability. The assistant doesn't just recommend; it also acts as a filter for deals. 

And one last detail that sums it all up: in generic product queries, no response mentioned Black Friday. The shortlist is formed with responses that are not dependent on the campaign. What the AI will recommend in November is being determined by what is published throughout the year.

Digital conversation and AI: Two spaces and two different interpretations 

There is one conclusion that connects the two parts of this analysis. Digital conversation and AI responses are two distinct spaces, with different sources. Forums, social media, and YouTube account for barely 3% of attendee citations, and at the same time, AI is almost entirely absent from what consumers share on social media.

That's why neither analysis is sufficient on its own. Social listening reveals what consumers value, what concerns them, and how they experience the wait. AI visibility analysis, a field we explore in our Guide to GEO Strategy, shows which brands make it onto the shortlist and through which sources. The value lies in the intersection: attributes that consumers value in the conversation but that AI doesn't associate with the brand; recommended competitors where the brand should be; or media outlets and guides that influence responses but with which the brand isn't actively engaging.

Recommendations for Black Friday '26

You don't have to wait for Black Friday to get started. There are five actions that can help you identify where the opportunities are and what needs to be corrected.

• Read the curve, not the peak. More than half of the interest arrives before the campaign week. Decisions about messaging, offerings, and presence need to be made when the curve starts to rise, not when it reaches its peak.

• Ask the AI before you ask your customer. Ask the questions your consumer will ask in November (“best X for the price”, “is it worth buying X on Black Friday?”) and see if you appear, with what attributes, and up against whom.

• Find out where the answers are coming from. Review the reviews, forums, comparison sites, and media outlets associated with your category. If the sources that help build your brand's perception are off your radar, you have a clear starting point for improvement.

• Listen to what AI says about your prices before launching your offer. If AI flags inflated price history and markdowns, an offer that can't withstand that scrutiny loses credibility right at the point of purchase. It's important to understand the perception of your prices, the doubts your promotions raise, and what arguments can help bolster their credibility.

• Make decisions based on current signals, not just past results. What worked in the previous campaign doesn't necessarily explain how consumers will buy this year. Analyze what they're looking for, what questions they're asking, what sources they consult, and how the digital conversation is evolving. The sooner you detect changes, the more room you'll have to act.

Start the campaign before the campaign momentum

Black Friday is just one instance where a much broader shift in shopping habits becomes visible. Consumers research earlier, compare more options, and rely on AI for guidance. Brands, meanwhile, are competing for something that happens before the purchase: getting into the range of choices the customer considers.

So ask yourself this: if your customer asked AI today which brand to choose in your category, would you appear among its recommendations? And would you know why?

At RocaSalvatella we believe that understanding how people perceive you and how AI interprets you is the first step to anticipating that moment.

We’d be glad to continue the conversation!